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Tampa molten contract record and US Gulf export diversion into mid-2026

*2026-07-15 · Sulfur Wire Outlook* Argus reported third-quarter 2026 Tampa molten sulfur contracts settled at a record $705 per long ton delivered, up $50/lt from $655/lt in the prior quarter, after Q2 had already exceeded the previous 2008 peak. Spot export interest from US Gulf refineries remained elevated in that news cycle while Middle East flows were constrained; Argus also noted unusual Q2 destinations including north Africa and east Africa. Some US Gulf producers lack solid-export infrastructure and remain tied to domestic molten consumers, raising storage-risk concerns if phosphate affordability weakens. USGS MCS 2026 already framed 2025 US production lower year on year (8.1 Mt all forms estimated) with Canada the dominant elemental import source. ChemAnalyst early-July commentary described a relatively stable domestic US spot tone despite high global prices, citing adequate refinery output and inventories. UNCERTAIN: how long US Gulf solid/molten export diversion lasts if Hormuz transit normalizes, and whether Tampa’s record contract level feeds further demand destruction in Florida phosphate.

Key points

  • Argus (13 Jul 2026): Tampa Q3 2026 molten contract $705/lt delivered (record).
  • US Gulf spot export values described as well above domestic contract in the same Argus item (licensed assessment figures not redistributed here).
  • USGS MCS 2026: US 2025e production 8.1 Mt; apparent consumption 9.1 Mt; net import reliance 14%.
  • Domestic US market described as insulated/stable in early July open commentary despite global tightness.
  • UNCERTAIN: phosphate affordability feedback on Tampa and duration of nontraditional US Gulf export destinations.

    • Sources

  • [Tampa 3Q liquid sulphur price hits record $705/lt (Argus)](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt)
  • [USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 . Sulfur](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-sulfur.pdf)
  • [US Sulphur Market Maintains Stability Amid Persistent Global Supply Constraints (ChemAnalyst)](https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/us-sulphur-market-maintains-stability-amid-persistent-global-supply-43352)
    • --- Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.

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